Is Tony Pena Jr. the next Rafael Betancourt?
July 22, 2008 – 7:14 amUpon checking the box scores this morning, I came across the following line during a 19-4 Detroit drubbing of the Royals:
Pena 1.0 IP 0H 0R 0ER 0BB 1K
Expecting to see the usual hilarity that ensues when a position player takes the mound (a la Jamie Burke), I queued up Pena’s inning on MLB.TV.
Wow. Instead of poorly-placed, low-80’s junk, Pena was bringing it. The offensively- challenged shortstop hit the low-90’s on several occasions, and even mixed in a few curveballs. Intrigued by Pena’s performance, I decided to take a look at his Pitch F/X data for the outing.
The chart shows the vertical and horizontal movement (in inches) that Pena Jr. got on his pitches, relative to a pitch thrown without spin. The X axis shows the amount of horizontal movement on Tony’s pitches, while the Y axis shows the amount of vertical movement on the pitches. The chart is from the view of the catcher, so pitches with a negative horizontal (X axis) value are tailing in on a righthanded hitter. Pitches with a low vertical (Y axis) value are moving down in the strike zone; the lower the Y value, the more downward movement the pitch has.
Type MPH X(In.) Z(In.) #Thrown
FB 90.2 -7.90 3.90 8
CB 75.9 7.76 0.09 4
Type is the type of pitch thrown. FB=Fastball, CB=Curveball. MPH is the average initial velocity of the pitch. X is the amount of horizontal movement on the pitch. Remember, a negative X value means the pitch is moving toward a righthanded batter. Z is the amount of vertical movement on the pitch. The lower the Z value, the more downward movement on the pitch. #Thrown is the number of times that Pena threw each pitch.
Color me impressed. The career .236/.255/.316 hitter ramped his heater into the low-90’s, with an average velocity of 90.2 MPH. In addition, the pitch had plenty of tailing action in on Tiger righthanders (-7.90 X) with sinking action to boot (3.90 Z).
Pena’s “slurve” broke away quite a bit from righthanders (7.76 X) while also displaying some tilting action (0.09 Z). Pena actually caught Tigers backstop Ivan Rodriguez looking on a sweeping breaking ball. Pena can now say that he struck out a future hall of famer.
This “analysis” is mostly tongue-in-cheek, but it does at least make you wonder if Pena Jr. would be more serviceable as a reliever than as a shortstop. One of the Royals announcers even alluded to Rafael Betancourt, a converted shortstop who has gone on to have a successful major league career as a fastball-oriented reliever. Sure, it’s an apples-to-oranges comparison (Betancourt began that transition in 1997 in the minors, made stops in Japan and suffered through injury woes), but the premise is still the same as we have seen from other converts: Pena Jr. just not going to hit enough to play, so why not give that live arm a shot on the mound?
Let’s face it, Pena Jr. cannot hit. At all. With zero pop (.80 ISO), patience (17 career walks) or contact ability (16.6 K%), he’s going to have to cover an ungoldy amount of territory to be worth employing on a regular basis. The pitching sample size is incredibly small, but I’m sure that some members of the Royals organization are at least pondering the idea of letting Pena Jr. unleash some high heat, as opposed to making a futile attempt to hit it.
David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Driveline Mechanics, The Transaction Guy on the MVN Network, and Inside Edge Scouting Services. David is a Journalism major at Duquesne University. To contact David, drop a line at david@drivelinemechanics.com or golebie1029@duq.edu
